Oil prices could fall below $60 by 2027 as supply outpaces demand, says energy expert

Christof Ruehl, Global Advisor at Crystol Energy, expects crude oil prices to fall below $60 per barrel in 2027 as global supply exceeds demand by more than 1 million barrels per day. He said improving prospects for a US-Iran agreement and the gradual normalisation of energy trade flows could add to supply, while slower demand growth is likely to keep pressure on oil prices over the medium term.”It seems as if there’s an agreement in place, to be for the most part still negotiated, but it certainly looks better than it did just a week ago,” Ruehl said.

He noted that markets have adapted quickly to disruptions caused by tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. Oil producers have increased the use of pipelines and alternative export routes, while refiners have adjusted operations to maintain supply. These changes, he said, have improved the resilience of global energy markets.
Ruehl added that the oil market’s reaction to the recent crisis highlights how much the industry has changed over the past five decades. The global economy now requires significantly less oil to generate economic output, reducing the impact of supply shocks compared with earlier energy crises.The growing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and improvements in energy efficiency are also reshaping demand patterns. According to Ruehl, these trends could bring the world closer to peak oil consumption.

“We may look in a few years and say, okay, 2025 was probably the year in which oil consumption peaked in the world,” he said.

China remains a key variable for oil markets. Ruehl expects the country to continue building strategic petroleum reserves when prices fall, providing some support to demand. However, he believes the combination of rising production, stronger energy infrastructure and slowing consumption growth will keep the medium-term outlook for crude prices subdued.

For the full interview, watch the accompanying video

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