A US delegation including special envoy Steve Witkoff is set to meet Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi for talks in Geneva on Thursday as American forces mass in the Middle East.
Oil has been caught between bearishness from widespread expectations for a global glut this year and heightened geopolitical concerns over Iran. Some of that risk is showing up in the options market, with skews still biased toward bullish calls as implied volatility stays elevated.
US President Donald Trump said he preferred a diplomatic solution regarding Iran’s nuclear program, but he warned of consequences if no deal is agreed. The US has imposed new sanctions on over 30 entities supporting Iranian oil and weapons sales, ramping up of pressure on Tehran before talks.As tensions simmer in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia is on course to export the most crude in almost three years this month, while Iran has been rapidly filling up tankers in recent days. Combined flows from Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates are also higher.
The market will be keenly watching for the outcome of a scheduled OPEC+ meeting on Sunday to decide supply policy for April. Some delegates expect a modest production increase, but one official said the outlook was unclear as conflict risks between the US and Iran cloud the outlook.
With inputs from Bloomberg
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