Oil prices may stay supported as Russian supply remains off market: Energy Aspects

Oil prices could remain supported in the near term as a large volume of Russian crude is not reaching the market, Energy Aspects co-founder Amrita Sen said on the sidelines of India Energy Week.Sen said geopolitics continues to be the main driver for oil markets, with Russia now at the centre of supply concerns. “Geopolitics, 100%,” she said, referring to the biggest influence on prices this year.

She said tanker tracking data shows a significant amount of unsold Russian oil is floating at sea and is not available to buyers. “That 100 to 140 million barrels is not available to the market,” Sen said, adding that this explains why prices are rising despite data showing an oversupplied market.

Sen also said Indian refiners have been asked to reduce purchases of Russian crude amid ongoing US–India trade discussions, adding another layer of uncertainty for supply.Also Read | Crude oil prices may average $59-60/barrel in 2026 amid geopolitical risks: S&P Global Energy

She said Energy Aspects’ base case assumes Russia-related sanctions will remain in place for some time. “We are very far away from peace,” she said, noting that if sanctions stay, prices could remain firm and edge higher.
On the outlook for the year, Sen said prices were earlier expected to be weakest in the first quarter due to surplus supply, but that may not happen now because of Russian barrels staying off the market, refinery maintenance schedules, and supply disruptions such as recent outages in Kazakhstan and winter storms in the US.She said natural gas prices have also risen sharply, touching about $7 per MMBtu in the US, as production losses and new LNG projects make gas markets more globally connected.

On India’s crude sourcing, Sen said imports from Russia have fallen from around 1.8–2 million barrels per day to about one million barrels per day and could drop further, especially for state-owned refiners. She added that Venezuelan crude could partly offset this, with companies such as Reliance Industries seeking licences to import.

Sen said Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) production increases and current price levels still support refinery margins, adding that the situation would be different if crude were closer to $85 a barrel.

For the full interview, watch the accompanying video

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