The talks between Trump and Zelenskiy appeared to represent a reversal of fortune for Kyiv just days after the US president met Putin in Alaska and said the onus to end the conflict rested with Ukraine. Trump also proposed a trilateral gathering following the one-on-one summit.
Talks on ending the war have ramped up recently with the meeting between Putin and Trump on Friday, followed by discussions with Zelenskiy and European leaders on Monday. That’s injected uncertainty into the market, but oil is still more than 10% lower this year due to concerns about the fallout from US trade policies and the outlook for oversupply as OPEC+ brings back barrels.
“Crude may be in for a holding pattern,” said Vandana Hari, the founder of oil market analysis firm Vanda Insights in Singapore. “The path to resolving the conflict has opened up but could be a long one.”Despite the diplomacy, attacks from both sides continue. Ukraine said it carried out a fresh strike on Russia’s Druzhba oil pipeline system on Monday, halting a conduit that’s important for crude supply to parts of central Europe.
A possible Putin-Zelenskiy meeting could take place within two weeks, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said after the gathering at the White House. The Ukrainian leader said it was his best meeting yet with Trump.
For the oil market, investors are watching to see how measures for a ceasefire will impact sanctions. Trump recently escalated economic penalties against India for purchasing Russian crude, although the US president has spared China — the biggest overall buyer — from so-called secondary sanctions.
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