Prediction markets saw sharp moves following comments by President Donald Trump that signalled a shift in his thinking on the next chair of the US Federal Reserve, CNBC reported.According to CNBC, betting odds on Kalshi for former Fed governor Kevin Warsh jumped to as high as 40%, up from roughly 15%, after Trump told ‘The Wall Street Journal’ that Warsh had moved to the top tier of contenders. In contrast, the implied probability of National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett briefly fell below 60%, compared with levels near 80% in recent weeks.
Trump also made clear that Hassett remains a serious candidate and continues to lead on Kalshi. “I think you have Kevin and Kevin. They’re both — I think the two Kevins are great,” he said.
Hassett had dominated prediction markets for months, but by Friday afternoon, his odds had softened as investors adjusted to Trump’s latest remarks, CNBC said.Other individuals previously considered for the position included Federal Reserve governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, along with Rick Rieder, who heads fixed income at BlackRock. They were among 11 candidates evaluated for the role, though Kalshi has effectively priced out their chances.
