Private capital and public-private partnerships offer a rare bright spot at a time when global aid is retreating sharply, according to Raj Shah, President of The Rockefeller Foundation, who warned that deep funding cuts could cost millions of lives and destabilise vulnerable regions.In an interview with CNBC-TV18, Shah said the world is facing an unprecedented pullback in humanitarian support.
“We are extremely concerned,” he said, pointing out that the United States has reduced humanitarian assistance by 67%, the United Kingdom by nearly 40%, and France and Germany by close to 20%.
His comments follow a stark report in The Lancet Global Health, which estimates that 93 low- and middle-income countries, including India, could face between 9.4 million and 22.6 million additional deaths by 2030 if aid reductions persist.The analysis, conducted by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health with support from The Rockefeller Foundation, outlines scenarios in which annual cuts of 10.6% could lead to 9.4 million preventable deaths, while steeper reductions of 15% or more may result in over 22 million additional deaths — including 5.4 million children under five.“After a year, we now understand the likely impact of these cuts,” Shah said. “Somewhere between 9.5 million and 22.5 million people could lose their lives if these cuts persist. About 5.5 million of those are children under the age of five.”He cautioned that beyond the moral tragedy, the consequences could extend to global security. If the world were to face a crisis similar to the 2008 food emergency or the 2014 Ebola outbreak, weakened aid systems could turn local shocks into global instability.“We are dismantling the capacity to solve such problems where they occur,” he said, adding that this makes the world “less safe and less interconnected”.The issue has gained urgency at the Munich Security Conference, where humanitarian assistance is now a key theme amid concerns that aid cuts could exacerbate geopolitical tensions.Shah argued that the post-World War II order of relative peace and prosperity was built on cooperation shaped by shared values, not simply power politics.He also pointed to rising tariffs as compounding pressures on poorer nations. Before President Donald Trump, the US generalised tariff rate stood at around 2.6%, Shah noted. It is now about 13%, and roughly 27% for the 44 poorest countries, most of them in Africa.“The tariff fight is effectively doubling down on the humanitarian and development pullback,” he said.On climate policy, Shah described the revocation of a scientific finding that climate change poses a public health risk as “a significant setback”. He argued that ignoring climate risks will not make them disappear, especially as global warming has accelerated in recent years.A more effective strategy, he said, would be to compete in future-facing industries such as battery technology, energy storage and renewables that can power data centres and enable sustainable growth.Against this backdrop, Shah sees the private sector as the “silver lining” in a shrinking aid world. In India, The Rockefeller Foundation is backing large-scale, innovation-led public-private partnerships that combine government support, entrepreneurs and rupee-based capital to expand reliable, lower-cost electrification in rural areas.“We see a new model of development that combines private capital, science and technology to drive inclusive growth,” he said. Similar efforts are under way in Nigeria and Brazil, though he acknowledged that fragile states remain highly vulnerable if another major food or pandemic crisis emerges.To bridge the gap as governments retreat, the foundation is also experimenting with unconventional partnerships, including with popular YouTube creator MrBeast. Through joint school-feeding initiatives in Ghana and Kenya, Shah said the aim is to mobilise younger generations. “They want kindness to go viral. They want compassion and empathy to define the world they inherit,” he said.Shah will visit India in the coming days, including Lucknow, to review progress on the Global Energy Alliance initiative. In Rajasthan, the foundation has worked with an AI firm to digitise the state’s electricity grid, mapping infrastructure with drones and enabling a shift towards more efficient renewable energy. Farmers are installing solar infrastructure on their land and selling power back into the grid, earning feed-in tariffs.Lower electricity costs in rural India, Shah said, can strengthen agriculture, raise farm incomes and create jobs. The broader lesson, he argued, is that even as official aid shrinks, partnerships anchored in private capital, science and technology can still deliver development at scale — provided fragile states are not left behind.Also Read | ‘Extremely concerned’ about global aid cuts: Rockerfeller’s Raj Shah warns of millions of needless deathsBelow is the verbatim transcript of the interview.Q: Through the week, headlines have been screaming disruption on account of AI and the global IT sell-off that has captured the imagination, but little attention is being paid to the numbers I just read out on cuts to global aid and the impact that is likely to have on global health outcomes. How concerned are you today?Shah: We are extremely concerned. About a year ago, President Trump shut down USAID, and America pulled back 67% of its resources for humanitarian aid, assistance, and global cooperation. The United Kingdom has reduced aid by almost 40%, and France and Germany by nearly 20%. We see those as just the first step in further reductions to come.After a year, we now understand the likely impact of these cuts. As you pointed out, somewhere between 9.5 million and 22.5 million people could lose their lives if these cuts persist. About 5.5 million of those are children under the age of five.Here is why that matters: if we were to face a 2008-style food security crisis or a 2014-style Ebola outbreak today, those could become global points of instability because we are dismantling the capacity to solve such problems where they occur. Beyond the tragic and moral catastrophe of lost lives, we are making the world less safe and less interconnected by embracing a highly transactional view of great power competition.The Munich Security Conference presents an opportunity to promote an alternative vision of global competition, one informed by enlightened values. There are common global threats: pandemics, health risks, climate risks, and AI-related risks. If we work together to address them, we can all be safer and more secure.Q: But are you seeing any takers? That is the big question. The global focus is on tariffs, economic volatility, and AI. Is this issue getting attention at the Munich Security Conference?Shah: Our goal is to elevate this issue and ensure people understand that since World War II, relative peace and prosperity have been underpinned by global cooperation informed by values — not simply by the idea that might is right.If you look at tariffs, economic coercion is moving in the same direction. Before President Trump, America’s generalised tariff rate was about 2.6%. Now, it is roughly 13%. For the 44 poorest countries, most of them in Africa, it stands at 27%. The tariff fight is effectively doubling down on the humanitarian and development pullback, making life more difficult for the most vulnerable nations.Q: Speaking of future vulnerabilities, President Trump has revoked the scientific finding that climate change poses a public health risk — a move that removes emission limits on vehicles, power plants, and other major pollution sources. What kind of setback do you see?Shah: This is a significant setback, though one many anticipated. In the past three years, the rate of global warming has increased by nearly 40% compared with prior decades. Ignoring the issue will not make it disappear.A smarter strategy would be to compete to win the future, investing in battery technology, stationary storage solutions, and renewable energy that can power data centres and enable a clean, sustainable future.Trying to win the past is not an effective strategy for any nation. When a country as large and influential as the United States takes such steps, it is a setback for the entire world.Q: In this scenario, are the cuts expected to worsen in 2026? Is there any silver lining? What role does the private sector play?Shah: I believe the private sector is the silver lining. In India, for example, at The Rockefeller Foundation, most of our projects are large-scale, innovation- and science-based public-private partnerships. These bring together government, entrepreneurs, and local, rupee-based capital to reach hundreds of millions of people, particularly rural farming communities, with more reliable and lower-cost electrification.We see similar efforts in Nigeria, Brazil, and other middle-income countries with greater state capacity. The silver lining is a new model of development that combines private capital, science, and technology to drive inclusive growth.The challenge lies in fragile states. In those countries, we risk catastrophe if we face another major food crisis or pandemic similar to those of the past two decades.Q: In the interim, as government funding declines, what fills the vacuum until governments return to the table?Shah: That question is also the answer to how we bring governments back. We have launched a partnership with Mr Beast, a globally recognised YouTube influencer who reaches around 800 million young people. Through joint school-feeding programmes in Ghana, Kenya, and elsewhere, we see strong reactions from young audiences. They want kindness to go viral. They want compassion and empathy to define the world they inherit.Young people today have unprecedented access to global realities through their phones. They often demonstrate more empathy than some older leaders. We need collective accountability, not relying solely on governments, but tapping into the better instincts of humanity. No child wants to see another child go hungry, drop out of school, or enter forced labour due to a lack of opportunity. That instinct can power a broader movement.Q: You will be in India in the coming days. What is the plan, and what is the status of your projects here?Shah: We are very proud of our work in India, much of it in partnership with government and the private sector. Our flagship effort is the Global Energy Alliance initiative, which is providing tens of millions of people with access to reliable electricity.We are working with a small AI company that has helped digitise Rajasthan’s entire electricity grid. Using drones, they mapped every element of the grid, enabling a shift from coal to more efficient and cost-effective renewable sources. Farmers are building solar infrastructure on their land, selling power back into the grid, and earning feed-in tariffs.Lowering the cost of electricity in rural India can improve agriculture, raise farm incomes, strengthen women-led enterprises, and create jobs. It can transform economic outcomes for poorer rural and farming communities.I will be visiting Lucknow to see the expansion of this initiative. It demonstrates what is possible when modern technology, policymaking, government partnership, and philanthropy work together to improve lives at scale.
