In a dissenting opinion, Justice Brett Kavanaugh said the ruling left major uncertainties. “The Court says nothing today about whether, and if so how, the Government should go about returning the billions of dollars that it has collected from importers,” he wrote, adding that the process was likely to be a “mess”.
Hundreds of firms, including retailer Costco, have already filed lawsuits seeking reimbursement. According to US Customs and Border Protection data from December, about $130 billion has been collected under the tariffs. Estimates from the University of Pennsylvania, cited by Reuters, suggest the total could exceed $175 billion.Economists told NBC News that there is no established mechanism for issuing refunds. A recent analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that nearly 90% of the economic burden of the tariffs was borne by consumers and businesses.
Senator Elizabeth Warren said there was no legal pathway for many consumers and small businesses to recover past payments, arguing that large corporations with legal resources were better positioned to pursue refunds.
Illinois Governor JB Pritzker called for refunds amounting to $1,700 per family in his state, which he estimated would total more than $8 billion.Trump criticised the court’s decision during a White House news conference, calling it “defective” and noting that the ruling did not address refunds. He said the issue would likely face prolonged litigation and could remain in court for years.
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Advocacy groups and state officials quickly pushed for repayment after the ruling. The small business coalition We Pay the Tariffs called for “full, fast and automatic refunds”, while California Governor Gavin Newsom said any unlawfully collected funds should be returned with interest.
Lawmakers Steven Horsford and Janelle Bynum introduced legislation that would require Customs and Border Protection to automatically refund tariffs collected since January 1, 2025.
In his dissent, Kavanaugh warned that large-scale refunds could have significant implications for the US Treasury. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Reuters earlier this year that refunds would be manageable but described the process as potentially lengthy and complex.
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Adding to the uncertainty, Trump signalled after the ruling that he intended to sign an executive order introducing a 10% global tariff rate, a move economists said could further complicate refund claims.
