Brent crude, which had surged to nearly $98 per barrel on Monday amid escalating tensions in West Asia, cooled to around $94 after Iran and Israel announced a halt to hostilities following an appeal from US President Donald Trump.
The rupee is now trading near levels seen before the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy announcement last week, when the central bank unveiled a series of measures aimed at attracting dollar inflows into the country.
Market participants attributed the rupee’s recent recovery largely to expectations of fresh foreign currency inflows. The currency has rebounded from levels close to 97 per dollar, while lower hedging costs are also expected to encourage importer demand for dollars.Analysts said the RBI’s measures could potentially bring in billions of dollars, helping ease pressure on the local currency. Going forward, however, the rupee’s direction is likely to remain closely linked to movements in global crude oil prices.
Asian currencies also traded higher amid improving risk sentiment and softer oil prices. However, rising US Treasury yields could cap gains. The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note edged up to 4.565%, as expectations that the US Federal Reserve may raise interest rates this year continued to support bond yields and the dollar.
The rupee’s performance in the coming sessions will be influenced by global risk appetite, crude oil trends, foreign fund flows and developments in the US interest-rate outlook.
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