Studies estimate Gaza death toll over 75,000, around 35% above official count: Report

Independent scientific studies estimate that more than 75,000 people were killed in Gaza by early 2025, a figure nearly 35% higher than the 49,090 violent deaths reported by Gaza’s Ministry of Health (MoH) over the same period, according to a report by Qatar-based Al Jazeera.A population-representative household study known as the Gaza Mortality Survey (GMS), published in The Lancet Global Health, an open-access peer-reviewed journal focused on global health research, estimated about 75,200 violent deaths between 7 October 2023 and 5 January 2025.

Based on interviews with 2,000 households representing 9,729 individuals, researchers said the toll equals roughly 3.4% of Gaza’s pre-war population of 2.2 million. The study described MoH figures as a conservative baseline rather than an exaggeration.
The findings build on earlier research published in The Lancet in January 2025, which used capture-recapture modelling to estimate 64,260 deaths during the first nine months of the war.The GMS extended the timeline into 2025 and also estimated 16,300 non-violent deaths, including 8,540 excess fatalities linked to deteriorating living conditions and healthcare collapse, according to The Lancet Global Health.

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An injury model published in eClinicalMedicine estimated 116,020 cumulative injuries by 30 April 2025, with 29,000–46,000 cases requiring complex reconstructive surgery. Researchers said more than 80% of injuries were caused by explosions.

By May 2025, only 12 of Gaza’s 36 hospitals were functioning beyond emergency care, with bed capacity reduced to about 2,000, according to The Lancet Global Health.