With summer at its peak in the US, retailers are bracing for a very different season — Christmas. Typically, companies finalise holiday orders and pricing by now, but President Donald Trump’s unpredictable trade policies have thrown those plans into disarray.
Take Balsam Hill, known for its artificial trees and decorations. This year, it expects to publish fewer and slimmer holiday catalogs. “The uncertainty has led us to spend all our time trying to rejigger what we’re ordering, where we’re bringing it in, when it’s going to get here,” said Mac Harman, CEO of Balsam Brands, Balsam Hill’s parent company. “We don’t know which items we’re going to have to put in the catalog or not.”
For an industry that starts holiday planning as early as January, the flip-flopping tariffs have left many scrambling. Some retailers have scaled back their product lines to avoid the risk of unsold, overpriced goods. Shoppers may find fewer gift options, and prices are likely to be higher—how much more depends on whether Trump’s latest round of “reciprocal” tariffs takes effect next month.
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The toy industry, which sources nearly 80% of its goods from China, has been hit especially hard. American toy makers usually begin production in April, but this year that was delayed until late May, said Greg Ahearn, president and CEO of the Toy Association. The delay followed a steep 145% tariff imposed on Chinese goods.
Although tariffs have since eased—with a truce set to expire on August 12—the damage has been done. Manufacturing is down for small and medium US toy firms, and toys are only now starting to arrive at American warehouses. Whether retailers will be able to replenish stocks of any breakout holiday hits remains uncertain, said James Zahn, editor-in-chief of Toy Book.
Independent toy store owners like Dean Smith, co-owner of JaZams in New Jersey and Pennsylvania, have also been affected. “I had to eliminate half of the products that I normally buy,” he said, after running complex pricing scenarios due to a 20% increase in some wholesale costs. He opted for cheaper options where possible and skipped costlier items he felt customers wouldn’t buy.
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Hilary Key, owner of The Toy Chest in Indiana, decided to forego her usual early product testing due to fears of import delays and price hikes. “My concern is not that I’ll have nothing… But that doesn’t mean I’m going to have the best stock for every developmental age, for every special need,” she said.
Vendors are already issuing price increase notices. Schylling, for example, hiked its rates by 20%, affecting collectibles like Care Bears and Needoh toys. But these figures may still shift—depending on tariff developments.
Even as President Trump resets tariff rates—this time targeting imports from Brazil, the EU, and Mexico—they’re not set to kick in until August 1, giving a brief window to import goods at the current 10% baseline rate. As a result, the Port of Los Angeles saw its busiest June in 117 years, said Gene Seroka, executive director of the port.
According to Seroka, this activity reflects a “tariff whipsaw effect”—with imports slowing when tariffs rise and spiking when they’re paused. “For us consumers, lower inventory levels, fewer selections and higher prices are likely as we head into the holidays.”
JaZams’ Smith said they began placing orders two months earlier for select items and even doubled warehouse space to hold them. Yet even consumers seem to be stocking up early—snapping up plush toys and stuffed unicorns.
“We’re just trying to be as friendly as we can to the consumer and still have a product portfolio or profile that is gonna meet the needs of all of our various customers, which is getting more and more challenging by the day,” Smith said.
Back at Balsam Brands, Harman said the company is still focused on delivering joy this season—despite a slimmer range. “We’re just not going to have a bunch of the items that consumers want this year, and that’s not a position we want to be in,” he said.
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