Tariff uncertainty fuels equity market volatility, says Mark Matthews

There is significant market disruption caused by the US government’s fluctuating tariff policies, says Mark Matthews of Bank Julius Baer & Co. highlighting that the market’s discomfort with the constant changes and lack of clarity. “What we want is certainty, and what we don’t like is the uncertainty,” he remarked.The frequent adjustments to tariff policies, including potential carve-outs and flexible applications, are perceived as “kicking the can down the road,” rather than providing a stable economic framework.

Also Read | Market bottoming process underway, but risks persist, says Manishi RaychaudhuriA key point of discussion is whether US President Donald Trump genuinely prioritises the stock market’s health. While he previously hinted at tolerating market downturns, his constant media presence suggests he might be more sensitive to public perception than initially thought. The concern is that if the market enters a bear phase, “absolutely he will be the one who gets the blame,” said Matthews.
While global markets have seen various countries benefit from US economic turbulence, India stands out. Its rapid gross domestic product (GDP) growth, positioning it as the world’s fastest-growing major economy and a future third-largest, makes it an attractive investment.Also Read | A $44 billion fund manager sees long-term value in these sectors

However, its equity market is relatively expensive. Matthews notes, “on the one hand, you have got great growth. On the other hand, it is not cheap.” Yet, he maintains an overweight position in India, preferring growth over value.

The US dollar is showing signs of weakening, having broken key downward trend barriers. This trend is attributed to reduced investment flows into the US and the dollar’s perceived overvaluation. Matthews anticipates “softness in the dollar,” which would benefit emerging markets.

For the full interview, watch the accompanying video

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