Al Sharaa , who has been an Al Qaeda and ISIS member and operative involved in umpteen number of terror incidents, found himself whitewashed by the western cleaning machines. What came out was a smart and pragmatic ( at least on the surface of it) suave, pinstriped
suits donning self assumed President of the Syrian Arab Republic even with a new flag.
He has visits from west and visited regional leaders and is supported by Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey among others. Iran and Russia lost significant ground even though Moscow appears to have cut some deals to retain their bases in Tartous and Latakia. But there are also reports that ISIS is regaining its lost ground and may even try to release its over 10000 fighters and their families imprisoned in Al Hol etc. They may be looking to exploit the fragile situation in Syria.Turkiye and Israel and to some extent the US have emerged as bigger stakeholders and gained control over the territory and local power dynamic. While the US supported Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) hitherto fighting for autonomy and independence and have been a threat to Ankara eventually cut a deal with al Sharaa and are now the part of the new government and dispensation which has removed at least one hurdle for Turkiye.
But Israel’s occupation of Golan heights and even more territory as well as bombings at will have become a continuing threat for new Syrian government as well as Turkiye which considered the recent gains in Syria as exclusive. While the Syrian leadership is in a much weaker position to counter the Israeli designs and have been making pragmatic statements to assuage any fears which Tel Aviv might be harbouring since it very much refers to Al Sharaa as a terrorist.
Sharaa claimed that “We are trying to use patience and wisdom as much as possible. If there are fears, we have announced from the first moments that Syria will not pose a threat to any state in the region or the world. And if there are expansionist motives, the entire world agreed with Syria to condemn Israel’s steps in advancing on Syrian territory.”
The United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) conducted an inspection in Syria’s southern Daraa province, visiting areas targeted by Israeli occupation forces (IDF). Be that as it may, sooner than later one may witness the Syrian frustration with a ‘free for all scenario ‘and occupation of their territory could ignite the cinders against Netanyahu’s love for land. In fact, they were helped by the societal fears and social divisions. Druze community even seems to have approached the Israelis for help.
Meanwhile, President Erdogan wants to take the full advantage of their surrogates by having proper bases and decisive control which also comes in direct conflict with the Jewish state with whom there is no love lost especially since the Israel- Hamas war of nearly 18 months and still going on. Although mired by his own domestic troubles and opposition Erdogan basks in the glory of his friendship with President Trump who congratulated him for an exceptional achievements in Syria .
Besides, Turkiye is playing host to US-Russian rapprochement and several meetings among the officials have been facilitated . Ankara has also been on the forefront to douse the fires of Russia-Ukraine war and has comfortable relationship with both Putin and Zelensky . But Trump is also keen to avoid confrontation between his two favourites – Netanyahu and Erdogan . Hence in the recent visit of Netanyahu to Washington DC ( 2nd since Trump took over) the issue was discussed and reportedly the technical teams of both sides are working to find a modus vivendi.
Interim President Al Sharaa’s biggest challenges are socio-economic. Removal of sanctions and relief are the utmost priority. While the Arab partners are helping out an inclusive and modern approach to future governance is also a challenge that needs to be consistently addressed and the conservative HTS leadership has been under western and Arab pressure to have a representative government especially after hundreds of minority Alawites of Assad clan were killed.
Al Sharaa who has been publicly committing to have a more inclusive governance finally at the end of March appointed a 23-member cabinet which had representations from several religious groupings although key portfolios were retained for his erstwhile colleagues from Idlib. The cabinet includes Yarub Badr, an Alawite who was named transportation minister, while Amgad Badr, who belongs to the Druze community, leads the agriculture ministry. Hind Kabawat, a Christian woman and part of the previous opposition to Bashar al-Assad, who worked for interfaith tolerance and women’s empowerment, was appointed as social affairs and labour minister.
These are good signs but challenges are far many for the nascent government learning to share and care and some kind of democracy. Syria, recently , issued a constitutional declaration, designed to serve as the foundation for the interim period led by al-Sharaa. The declaration kept a central role for Islamic law and guaranteed women’s rights and freedom of expression. But one of their benefactors in Saudi Arabia has patted their backs by assuring that “Kingdom’s aspiration to cooperate and work with the new Syrian government in a manner that embodies the fraternal and historical relations between the two countries and strengthens relations in all fields for achieving security, stability, and prosperity for Syria”.
At present, mistrust among all actors and stakeholders runs deep. However, for the sake of the Syrian people, the country must emerge from its misery without delay.
—The author, Amb. Anil Trigunayat, is a former Indian Ambassador to Jordan, Libya and Malta, and currently heads the West Asia Experts Group at Vivekananda International Foundation. Views expressed are personal.
Read his previous articles here
