The Strait is located between Iran and Oman and functions as a vital route for global oil trade. In 2025, around 13 million barrels per day passed via the Strait, representing around 31% of all seaborne crude flows, as per the energy consulting company Kpler, CNBC reported.
A prolonged closure of the Strait is likely to cause a further surge in oil rates, with some analysts projecting oil crossing $100 per barrel.South Asian countries
South Asia is likely to witness the most acute disruption, especially when it comes to LNG supply, CNBC reported, citing analysts.
UAE and Qatar account for 53% of India’s LNG imports, 99% for Pakistan and 72% for Bangladesh, the Kpler data stated.
With limited procurement flexibility and storage, Bangladesh and Pakistan are the most vulnerable. Bangladesh is already running a significant structural deficit in gas. As per the Institute of Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, Bangladesh is running a shortfall of over 1,300 million cubic feet per day, CNBC reported.
Meanwhile, India sees the largest combined exposure in the region. Over half its LNG imports are from Gulf countries and significant share in Brent-indexed. Hence, a Hormuz-driven crude spike will simultaneously life LNG contract prices as well as oil import costs, CNBC reported, citing Kpler’s Katayam.
China
The Strait’s blockade will test the energy security of China. However, alternative supply and stockpiles supply offer some buffer.China is the largest crude oil importer in the world and it purchases more than 80% of Iranian oil, Kpler said.
Approximately 30% of its LNG imports are from the UAE and Qatar and 40% of its oil imports pass via the Strait, UBP has estimated, CNBC reported.
China is exposed materially but more flexible.
Japan and South Korea
The Middle East supplies 7.5% of the oil imports of Japan and around 70% of Korea, UBP said, CNBC reported.
Their Gulf exposure for LNG is lower than that of South Asia’s, while South Korea sources 14% of it from the UAE and Qatar and Japan sources 6%, Kpler stated.
Even without there being shortages outright, the price effects can be severe.
Southeast Asia
Across a major part of Southeast Asia, cost inflation is the first-order hit rather than an immediate shortage, CNBC reported, quoting industry experts.
Spot-reliant LNG buyers will witness sharply higher replacement costs as Asia and Europe compete for Atlantic cargoes, Kpler’s Katayama said.
In Nomura’s framework, Thailand is a standout oil-price loser due to the external hit being large and immediate, CNBC reported. It has Asia’s largest net oil imports at 4.7% of the GDP. Each 10% of its oil price increase worsens the present account by approximately 0.5% point of its GDP, CNBC reported.
