Trade Setup for February 25: Nifty seen range-bound between 25,300 and 25,750 amid rising volatility

The market snapped its two-session gaining run, with the Nifty closing below its 21-DMA of 25,585. Despite the weakness, the index found support near the 200-DMA around 25,330, reinforcing that zone as a key cushion.The Nifty began the day 72 points lower amid soft global cues and drifted to an intraday low of 25,327 in the mid-afternoon trade.

A recovery of over 100 points after 1:45 pm trimmed some losses, but the index still settled 259 points lower at 25,459.
Among constituents, NTPC, Coal India and JSW Steel led the advances, while Tech Mahindra, HCL Tech and Eternal ended as the top drags.Sectorally, metals, oil and gas, and PSU banks outperformed, whereas IT, realty and financial services bore the brunt of selling.

The Nifty IT index extended its slide to a fifth straight session, plunging nearly 5% as concerns around AI-led disruption continued to dent sentiment.

The index has already declined 19% in February, making this its worst monthly performance since September 2008, at the onset of the global financial crisis, with three sessions still remaining.

Broader markets showed relative resilience. The Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 rebounded nearly 1% from their respective lows before closing with modest losses of 0.32% and 0.55%.

Analysts expect volatility to persist within a defined range amid mixed global and domestic triggers.Investors will track US consumer confidence data later today and Eurozone CPI tomorrow for further cues.

Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities sees immediate support at 25,325 and resistance around 25,600 in the short term.

Nilesh Jain of Centrum Finverse said the broader structure remains sideways as long as the index holds within the 25,200 to 25,800 band, which is acting as near-term support and resistance.

He cautioned that any pullback may struggle to sustain at higher levels as momentum indicators have turned negative.

During the session, the index briefly slipped below the swing low of 25,372 but managed to reclaim that level by the close, suggesting continued choppiness rather than a decisive breakdown, according to Nandish Shah of HDFC Securities.

He added that the 200-DEMA near 25,240 is a crucial support, while the 25,640 to 25,770 zone could limit upside attempts.

Rupak De of LKP Securities expects the index to oscillate within the 25,300 to 25,750 range in the near term.

As long as 25,300 holds decisively, he believes a meaningful bounce remains possible, with long positions considered using a stop loss below that level.