Tuesday, July 29, 2025

Trade Setup for July 25: 50-DMA now holds the key for the Nifty to prevent further downside

Date:

Thursday turned out to be a disappointing session for the bulls, as the Nifty faced selling pressure throughout and slipped below the crucial support level of 25,150.On the weekly expiry day, the index opened on a mildly positive note but failed to attract follow-up buying. It drifted lower in the early to mid-part of the session. A minor recovery attempt was seen later in the day, but the market ultimately closed near the day’s low.
The Nifty continued to grind lower intraday, weighed down by persistent selling and noticeable put unwinding, eventually closing below its 20-day EMA once again. For the week, the index traded in a narrow 400-point range and struggled to sustain higher levels.
The index declined 157 points to settle at 25,062.Eternal, Dr. Reddy’s, and Tata Motors emerged as the top performers on the Nifty. In contrast, Nestle India, Trent, and Tech Mahindra were among the major laggards.

Both the Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 indices witnessed profit booking, dropping 0.6% and 1.10%, respectively.

IT stocks came under heavy pressure, with the Nifty IT index falling over 2%, after midcap firms Coforge and Persistent Systems reported weaker-than-expected quarterly results. Additionally, lingering uncertainty around the India-US trade deal weighed further on the sector.

In contrast, the Nifty PSU Bank index gained 1.2%, buoyed by strong Q1 earnings from Canara Bank and Indian Bank.

Shares of Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) tanked 30%, its biggest single-day fall on record, after the CERC approved implementation of market coupling norms from January 2026. Brokerages like Bernstein have since slashed their targets on the stock. Here’s a look back at other stocks that have seen similar one-day declines over the past five years.
FMCG major Nestle India was the top Nifty loser, shedding over 5% on disappointing Q1 results. The company reported domestic volume growth of 3% for the June quarter, at the higher end of the CNBC-TV18 poll estimate range of 2-3%.Foreign investors were net sellers in the cash market on Thursday, while domestic investors were net buyers.

Overall, Siddhartha Khemka of Motilal Oswal Financial Services expects Indian markets to remain range-bound, with stock- and sector-specific moves being driven by Q1 earnings. He added that global cues such as the formalisation of the UK-India FTA and updates on the India-US trade deal will also be closely tracked.

Chandan Taparia of Motilal Oswal said the lack of follow-up buying and sustained pressure at higher levels continue to weigh on sentiment. Going forward, the index needs to hold above the 25,000 zone for a potential bounce toward 25,250 and 25,350 levels. A close below 25,000 could trigger a slide toward 24,900 and subsequently 24,800.

According to Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities, the Nifty’s underlying trend remains weak. The presence of strong overhead resistance and the formation of bearish patterns indicate a higher probability of further downside in the near term. A breakdown below 24,900 could extend the decline toward 24,500.

Rajesh Bhosale of Angel One observed that the Nifty continues to trade in a zig-zag manner, alternating between gains and losses. The index once again failed to sustain above last week’s high of 25,250, retreating sharply from that resistance zone.

Bhosale emphasised that the 24,900 zone is now a critical level. A breakdown below this would mean a close under the 50-day EMA, reinforcing bearish sentiment. As such, the 25,000-24,900 range has become a key support zone and a potential make-or-break level heading into the final trading session of the week.

Nandish Shah of HDFC Securities said immediate support for the Nifty is seen at 24,882. On the upside, unless the index decisively breaches 25,255, traders should maintain a cautious approach.

Rupak De of LKP Securities noted that the Nifty slipped lower after facing stiff resistance in the 25,250–25,260 range. On the hourly chart, it fell back below the 50-EMA and closed below it. The index remains in a range-bound phase, which may continue in the near term.

“On the downside, support remains intact at 24,900; a decisive break below this level could trigger a correction in the market. On the other hand, a sustained move above 25,260 may spark a fresh rally,” he added.

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