Friday, August 1, 2025

Trade Setup for July 9: Largecaps lead Nifty fightback but all hinges on US trade deal

Date:

After a weak start, the Nifty 50 index staged a smart recovery in the final hour, breaking out of a narrow range that had confined it for most of the trading session. While the index remained largely range-bound until 2:45 pm, a sharp rally in the last 45 minutes added over 100 points, showcasing renewed buying conviction.The Nifty eventually closed near the day’s high, gaining 61 points to settle at 25,522.
Financial heavyweights were instrumental in lifting both the Nifty and Nifty Bank into the green. Among the top gainers on the Nifty were Kotak Mahindra Bank, Eternal, and Asian Paints, while Titan, Dr. Reddy’s, and Bajaj Auto emerged as the top losers.
The Nifty Midcap and Smallcap indices, after facing steep losses in the first half, bounced back strongly in the second half. The Nifty Midcap 100 slipped by just 0.17%, and the Nifty Smallcap 100 ended down 0.29%, indicating a broad-based recovery.Amongst the sectoral indices, Nifty Realty, Financial Services, and Private Banks were the major gainers, demonstrating strong buying interest. Conversely, Nifty Consumer Durables, Pharma, and Healthcare were the major losers, seeing some profit booking.

Kotak Mahindra Bank was the top Nifty gainer, rising over 3% on the back of a strong Q1 business update. Titan was the top loser, falling nearly 6% after reporting below-estimate jewellery segment growth.
In thematic moves, textile stocks rallied after the US imposed a 35% tariff on Bangladesh, boosting expectations of higher export orders for Indian firms. AMC stocks were also in focus after SEBI proposed easing norms for mutual fund operations, allowing management of non-broad-based pooled funds without a PMS licence, under stricter oversight.On the flows front, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the cash market, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned net buyers.

Overall sentiment remains optimistic, buoyed by expectations of a trade breakthrough and the upcoming earnings season, said Siddhartha Khemka of Motilal Oswal.

Nandish Shah of HDFC Securities highlighted a bullish setup, citing that the Nifty has formed higher highs and higher lows over the last two sessions. “Immediate resistance is now placed at 25,669. A breakout above this level could drive the index confidently towards the 26,000 mark. On the downside, 25,331 remains a crucial support.”

Rupak De of LKP Securities said the index moved up after a period of consolidation on the hourly chart, boosting sentiment for the bulls. “On the daily chart, the Nifty formed a green candle following a hammer and doji pattern, a setup that often signals further upside. Support is seen at 25,400, with resistance at 25,600 and 25,750-25,800.”

Rajesh Bhosale of Angel One also flagged 25,450-25,300 as key support levels, while saying that 25,650-25,700 is the immediate resistance zone. A decisive breakout above this could pave the way for a move toward all-time highs.

According to Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities, the trend remains positive. “A further upside could push the Nifty towards the short-term hurdle at 25,700, and a breakout above that may open the path to 26,000-26,200. Immediate support is placed at 25,425.”

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