Other experts stressed that Trump’s claim of India drifting toward China and Russia is more narrative than fact. Former ambassador Arun Kumar Singh recalled that Moscow and Beijing have been close for years, citing their 2022 “no limits partnership.” He noted that the SCO Summit in Tianjin, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi met Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, had been scheduled long in advance and was not a reaction to US-India tensions. Singh underlined that while there has been some easing with China, progress remains fragile and potential flashpoints along the LAC persist.
Former foreign secretary Shashank argued that India is an easy target for Trump, who avoids taking on China or Russia directly. He suggested Trump’s positions are also shaped by business interests in Pakistan and advice from there. Still, he added, some voices around Trump are urging him to preserve long-term ties with India.Raymond Vickery, senior associate at CSIS, said Trump’s worldview reflects a “fortress America” mindset that prioritises transactional deals over partnerships. He cautioned that some in India risk falling into a similar “fortress India” approach, which would hurt prospects for peace and prosperity.
Across the board, the panel agreed that while Trump’s rhetoric may sting, the fundamentals of the US–India relationship remain strong, rooted in democratic values, people-to-people connections, and shared strategic interests against China.
Below is an excerpt from the discussion.
Q: Raymond Vickery, how do you see this statement coming from Donald Trump? Is this a jibe at India, or is this his understanding of the present situation? Is this how the White House really sees it? Do you see a softening of stand against India over the last few days?
Vickery: In order to wage peace like war, you have to have a strategy, and you have to have partners. Unfortunately, President Donald Trump does not have either in mind. He is a transactional person, coming from a real estate background, and for him everything is a transaction with winners and losers. So, it’s all right for him to make an extreme statement, hoping it will disorient the other side and he will come out on top.
On the other hand, I fear this reflects President Trump’s deepest views about international matters—that there is some sort of “fortress America” which has its own domain and does not need the rest of the world. That’s a very unfortunate stance.
There are many strong ties between the US and India, from democratic values enshrined in our constitutions to people-to-people links—Indian Americans are prominent in the United States—to strategic interests vis-à-vis China. We hope calmer heads on both sides will prevail and not allow this “my way or the highway” approach of President Trump to be the last word.
It seems to me that there also needs to be reflection in India. Some in India have said, “Well, we don’t need the rest of the world.” That mirrors Donald Trump’s view of “fortress India,” and that’s not going to lead to peace and prosperity either. So, it’s a time for reflection and moving forward in a balanced way.
Q: Ambassador Shashank, how do you see Donald Trump’s statements over the last few days? He’s been posting on Truth Social almost daily since the SCO Summit. Clearly, the images from the summit are playing on his mind. What reaction could we see from the White House when it comes to India in the coming days?
Shashank: A couple of points. One is that President Trump does not want to speak directly against China. He has decided that anything against China will hurt American interests. Secondly, with regard to Russia, he knows he cannot influence President Putin. So, the easiest target becomes India. This is made even easier because he has business interests in Pakistan, and Pakistanis have become his best advisors.
Still, I’m hopeful. Earlier, only people like Raymond Vickery and other international relations experts were highlighting the values shared by India and the US. Now, I find that even some of Trump’s advisors are speaking positively about bilateral relations and the importance of not disturbing them in the long term. But there are also those advising him negatively, and they need to either be quietened or removed. If President Trump only listens to the naysayers and his Pakistani advisors, it will take much longer for India and the US to return to a positive trend.
Q: Ambassador Arun Kumar Singh, in the last few weeks one thing is clear—even in trade relations, Trump is viewing India through the Russia-Ukraine lens. He asks: Can you help end the war? Will you stop buying Russian oil? Any trade deal or understanding is contingent on that. Everything revolves around it. Against this backdrop, how do you see his comment: “Looks like we’ve lost India and Russia to the deepest, darkest China. May they have a long and prosperous future together.”
Singh: It’s unfortunate, but there is no factual basis to what President Trump has posted. If he were not the president of a major country, nobody would have paid attention. If a student had written this in a university paper, they’d have received a failing grade. If a policy analyst had said it, they’d have lost credibility.
Look at the reality: Russia and China have had a close relationship for a long time. In February 2022, before the Ukraine conflict escalated, Putin visited China and their joint statement spoke of a “no limits partnership.” Later, when Xi visited Russia, an open mic caught him telling Putin that “changes are coming that we have not seen in 100 years, and we are together driving those changes.” So, this partnership is not new. To suggest otherwise is just narrative-building.
In the US, there was a notion that Trump could reach out to Putin, pressure Europe and Ukraine to compromise, and thereby break Russia away from China—what some called a “reverse Kissinger.” That hasn’t worked, and with no imminent progress on Ukraine conflict, this statement looks like a way to shift attention from that failure.
As far as India is concerned, the SCO summit and the Prime Minister’s China visit were scheduled long in advance—they weren’t tied to tensions in US-India relations. Of course, meetings take place in the context of the international atmosphere, but the schedule was unrelated.
The recent easing of tensions between India and China began back in October last year, when Modi and Xi met in Kazan. Progress has been limited, and new challenges could still emerge along the LAC. So again, this is more about optics and emotional messaging than actual change.
Q: Ambassador Sajjanhar, the MEA spokesperson has rejected inaccurate statements by Peter Navarro, who has called India a “laundromat for the Kremlin,” accusing it of profiteering from Russian oil, and supporting Putin’s Ukraine war. These are much harsher words than even Trump has used. Do you think India can ignore Navarro’s remarks, given that they may not reflect the official view of the US administration?
Sajjanhar: At the moment, I think Navarro reflects President Trump’s view, if not the wider administration’s. He couldn’t be making these statements without either explicit or indirect approval from Trump. Most appointees around Trump owe their positions to him, so they align with what he wants.
If the argument is that India should be punished because it buys Russian oil, then there are many others who should also be punished: China, the EU, and even the US itself. As Putin told Trump in Alaska, US-Russia trade had increased by 20% in the last four or five months since Trump took office. So, it’s not really about oil.
This looks more like a personal issue—possibly connected to India’s refusal to support Trump’s nomination for the Nobel. It seems to be ego-driven.
As far as Navarro’s remarks are concerned, India has rejected them. Regarding Trump’s own statement today, it’s inaccurate because India still values its relationship with the US. We’ve said this many times, regardless of what Navarro or others have claimed, our responses have been balanced, sober, and measured. We haven’t stooped to that level. I’m hopeful that, going forward, we’ll be able to put the relationship back on track.
Watch accompanying video for entire discussion.
