Bajaj Auto’s market share was 13.7% at the beginning of FY25, and now it’s around the same level. For Hero Moto, though, it has been a big slide. In April 2024, its market share was more than 31 %, and now it’s less than 29%, a fall of 250 basis points. In contrast, Eicher has gained market share of 70 bps in FY25 so far, and for TVS, it’s a gain of almost 200 bps.
Next important metric is domestic wholesalesCompanies report wholesale figures at the start of every month, and the picture on this front, as well, looks the same as retail market share. In the first half of FY25, the growth of Hero MotoCorp, Bajaj Auto and TVS was in the range of 10-15%, but in the second half of the year i.e. from October 2024 to February 2025, Bajaj Auto and Hero have seen a fall of 10% and 5% respectively. Eicher, on the other hand, has seen a growth of 15% and TVS, a growth of 7%. As a result, the growth in FY25 so far, for Bajaj Auto and Hero MotoCorp is 3% each while for Eicher it is 6% and for TVS it is 11%.
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Let’s look at one more segment—exportsExport is a crucial segment for Bajaj Auto and TVS Motor. Due to muted domestic growth, the export contribution to total sales has risen for both companies. For Bajaj Auto, exports now account for nearly 50% of total sales, up from 34% at the end of the first half of FY25. TVS has also seen an increase in export contribution from 22% to 30% over the same period.
However, when comparing export growth rates, Bajaj Auto has significantly underperformed. In H1FY25, Bajaj Auto’s export growth was only 7%, compared to 16% for TVS. This trend continued in H2FY25. In FY25 so far, Bajaj Auto has seen 15% export growth against TVS’ growth of 23%.
Now, let’s come to valuations
In September 2024, the valuations had surged with all these stocks hitting record highs. Bajaj Auto’s one year forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio surged to 37x, Hero MotoCorp to 25x, Eicher to 37x and TVS to 47x. Where does it stand now? The correction in stock prices has brought valuations back to historical averages. Bajaj Auto is currently trading at 21x, the same as its five year average, for Hero MotoCorp, it’s 14x against the average of 17x. For Eicher it’s 29x, same as the five-year average and for TVS, it’s 34x against the five-year average of 32x.
So, now, we will have to see how the next few months pan out. Bajaj Auto, in an interaction with CNBC-TV18, talked about recovery by the end of this month or early next month. So far, this underperformance in shares of Bajaj Auto and Hero MotoCorp comes on the back of continued muted sales in comparison to TVS and Eicher.
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