Limited Energy Shock for China, Bigger Strategic Hit
Low played down fears of an immediate energy crisis for China, despite Washington’s actions in Venezuela — one of Beijing’s key crude suppliers.“China imports about 80% of Venezuelan crude exports, but that accounts for roughly 4% of China’s total energy needs,” she noted. In the near term, the impact is likely to be limited to domestic price pressures and a modest increase in sourcing from China’s traditional energy partners in the Global South.
China’s aggressive push to reduce dependence on hydrocarbons has also softened the blow. Over the past decade, Beijing has emerged as a global leader in clean energy production, innovation, and usage, particularly in the electric vehicle and renewable manufacturing ecosystem, Low said.
However, the real vulnerability lies elsewhere.
Belt and Road Loans Under Pressure
According to Low, US control over Venezuelan oil assets could severely disrupt oil-backed loans tied to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), many of which rely on crude supply agreements for repayment.
“These oil-backed loans average around $20 billion and are still growing,” she said. “With contractual obligations now potentially disrupted, China may be forced to renegotiate repayment conditions, possibly on less favourable terms.”
Such renegotiations would weaken China’s financial leverage and credibility as a long-term development partner in the region — a result that Low believes is central to Washington’s strategy.
“This display of military might is clearly intended to chip away at China’s influence in the Caribbean and Latin America,” she added.
Venezuela Becomes a Flashpoint in US–China Rivalry
Venezuela’s oil wealth has increasingly turned the country into a strategic battleground between the world’s two largest economies. While Washington frames its actions around combating transnational crime and restoring stability, analysts see a broader attempt to reassert dominance in a region where China has made deep inroads through infrastructure investment and concessional financing.
From ports and airports to industrial parks and roadways, Chinese capital has become embedded across the Caribbean. US intervention in Venezuela now raises questions about the durability of those investments and the political cost of aligning too closely with Beijing.
Caribbean Nations Under Pressure
The fallout is being acutely felt by small Caribbean nations, many of which are struggling to navigate intensifying pressure from global powers.
Low described the regional response as “stunned silence,” noting that leaders in Barbados, Dominica, and St Vincent and the Grenadines have offered only cautious calls for dialogue and peace, stopping short of either endorsing or condemning US actions.
“This reflects fear — fear of victimisation and persecution,” she said. “These are the realities of small-state diplomacy, where countries lack the leverage to withstand pressure from major powers.”
Trinidad and Tobago’s own role — including granting airspace access and facilities to the US — highlights the difficult choices facing the region as security cooperation increasingly intersects with geopolitical alignment.
Also Read | Trump says US oversight of Venezuela could last years
No Clean Break With China, But Political Cooling Likely
Despite the tensions, Low does not foresee a dramatic severing of commercial ties between China and the Caribbean. Both the US and China remain the region’s largest trading partners, often alternating between the top two positions.
“I don’t expect a major break in Chinese commercial engagement,” she said. “What we may see is a cooling of political support for certain Chinese initiatives.”
As the US–China rivalry sharpens, Caribbean nations are likely to recalibrate their diplomacy — maintaining economic ties with Beijing while exercising greater caution in political alignment.
For global markets and energy watchers, Venezuela’s unfolding crisis is no longer just about oil. It has become a litmus test of how military power, energy security, and development finance are being weaponised in the next phase of great power competition.
Watch accompanying video for entire conversation.
