Filings for unemployment benefits remain one of the most immediate indicators of layoffs in the US, offering a near real-time snapshot of labour market health.
The ongoing Iran war—now in its seventh week—has added fresh uncertainty to the economic outlook, even after a recent ceasefire agreement between Washington and Tehran.Financial markets have shown resilience, but energy costs continue to weigh on the economy. Oil prices have eased to around $92 per barrel from last week’s $112, but remain significantly above pre-war levels.
Elevated fuel costs have increased expenses for both businesses and consumers, contributing to a sharp rise in inflation.
Consumer prices climbed 3.3% year-on-year in March, up from 2.4% in February, marking the fastest increase since May 2024. On a monthly basis, inflation rose 0.9%—the steepest gain in nearly four years—driven largely by the biggest surge in gas prices in six decades. With inflation still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, expectations for interest rate cuts have weakened.
The Labor Department had reported earlier this month that employers added 178,000 jobs in March, bringing the unemployment rate down to 4.3%, following a loss of 92,000 jobs in February. Revisions also trimmed 69,000 jobs from December and January payrolls, signalling underlying strain.
Recent layoffs by major firms, including Oracle and The Walt Disney Company, alongside cuts announced by Morgan Stanley, Block Inc, United Parcel Service and Amazon, point to continued pressure.
