“Retaliation breeds retaliation and leads to a downward cycle,” he said. Drawing from past interventions in Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam, Vickery argued that military success has not translated into long-term peace. He said the Trump administration’s approach seemed more focused on “personal glorification” than building peace through institutional means.
He also questioned Washington’s evolving relationship with Israel, calling it poorly defined.“We’ve seen an evolving approach without any overall strategic consideration of what the United States’ interests are,” he said, adding that Gaza remained a case study in strategic failure. The risk, according to Vickery, is that even if regime change occurs in Iran, it may result in “an even more radical Iranian regime.”
Anju Gupta, Strategic Affairs Expert and former Director General of Police, said the US had three likely goals behind the strikes — stopping Iran’s nuclear programme, halting attacks on Israel, and pushing Iran to agree to zero enrichment.
“On the face of it, it’s very doubtful whether the three major objectives that the US likely had in mind for these strikes have actually been met,” she said. Iran claimed the nuclear sites had already been evacuated and retaliated swiftly with missile strikes on Israeli cities.
Gupta also warned that the radiation risk from further strikes is real. “There are research reactors and spent fuel in these facilities. If inadvertently hit, radioactive clouds could easily reach India depending on wind conditions,” she said, recalling how the 1986 Chernobyl accident affected regions far beyond the USSR. She flagged the safety of the large Indian diaspora in the Gulf and the wider risks to India if conflict spreads.
Vickery pointed to China’s potential involvement as another geopolitical complication. With Beijing dependent on oil from the Strait of Hormuz and closely aligned with Iran, he raised concerns that China could use the situation to further its strategic presence around India—calling it a continuation of the “String of Pearls” strategy.
Gupta concluded that India is likely to face significant fallout if the conflict escalates. She cited contamination risks, disruption of trade routes, and the possibility of the Indian expatriate population in the Gulf returning home. “Iran is in our region… and we should actively plan for it,” she said.
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