“It’s going to settle down,” Papic said, adding that discussions between Venezuela’s oil company and energy ministry with US officials point towards a negotiated outcome involving oil supplies.
Also Read | Bay Capital sees credit growth driving banks, stays selective on tech and metalsPapic noted that Russia has limited ability to project power in the region and is unlikely to respond in a way that disrupts markets. He also said China, which has been a major buyer of Venezuelan crude, can source oil from elsewhere if needed.
However, Papic said the larger takeaway for investors is the message sent by the United States after the removal of Venezuela’s leadership under Donald Trump. He said the US has made it clear that access to commodities, especially oil, is now treated as a strategic issue rather than a purely global market transaction.
“The message was very clear: we want the oil,” Papic said. According to him, this signals a shift towards a world where countries seek to secure resources at the source, rather than rely on open markets.
While Venezuela-related supply concerns may ease, Papic said risks around Iran are underpriced by markets. He warned that recent US actions could encourage further interventions, raising the chance of disruption in the Middle East.“I worry about significant geopolitical risk in the Middle East,” he said, noting that Iran’s response would be different if it sees regime change as the objective.
Also Read | Emmer Capital CEO explains what could revive foreign investor interest in 2026
On crude prices, Papic said he would be surprised if Brent crude ends the year below $70 per barrel. He said this view is based not only on geopolitical risks but also on the behaviour of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Saudi Arabia’s fiscal needs.
Papic added that Saudi Arabia may not be able to keep output at current levels indefinitely, given its domestic spending plans and budget pressures.
Papic said some investors argue that strong US actions could reduce long-term geopolitical risk by discouraging challenges from other countries. While he acknowledged this view, he cautioned that repeated interventions carry their own risks if taken too far.
For now, he said investors should focus less on short-term Venezuela headlines and more on how control over oil and natural resources is reshaping global politics and energy prices.
For the full interview, watch the accompanying video
Catch all the latest updates from the stock market here
