Friday, November 6, 2026

What does AfD’s historic Bundestag win mean for Germany’s political future

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Friedrich Merz is set to become Germany’s next Chancellor after his party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), secured 28.52% of the vote. However, the party that came in second appeared more jubilant.The Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) claimed second place, winning 20.8% of the total 630 seats in the Bundestag, Germany’s federal parliament. This figure is significant because it marks the first time since World War II that a far-right party has achieved such widespread support.

What is the AfD?

The AfD, or Alternative für Deutschland, is a far-right political party founded in 2013 by former CDU members who opposed eurozone bailouts. Over time, it solidified its stance as an anti-immigration party, emphasising German identity politics.Given Germany’s Nazi history, mainstream parties have traditionally sought to Isolate far-right groups. The AfD, however, has firmly denied any Neo-Nazi affiliations.

Policies that captured the attention

The AfD has declared that “German nationality should not be handed out as a gift” and has advocated for stringent policies on immigration and political asylum. The party also pledged to revert to pre-1990 citizenship rules, where German ancestry was the key requirement for nationality. Its anti-immigration platform gained traction during the 2015-16 “refugee crisis,” when former Chancellor Angela Merkel permitted over a million asylum seekers to enter Germany.

To address voter frustration over the country’s sluggish economy, the AfD has also promised to abandon the euro and reinstate the German Mark. Its policies include replacing the European Union with a looser trade alliance, withdrawing from NATO, and scrapping green energy initiatives.

Support from the US administration

During its election campaign, the AfD received endorsements from Elon Musk and US Vice President JD Vance. On 14 February, Vance met with AfD leader Alice Weidel instead of Chancellor Olaf Scholz, with discussions focusing on the Russia-Ukraine war. In December 2024, Tesla CEO Elon Musk lauded Weidel during a virtual talk on his media platform X, asserting that “only the AfD can save Germany” and praising the party’s anti-immigrant and pro-Kremlin positions. Musk also made a virtual appearance at an AfD rally in January 2025.

What lies ahead for the AfD?

The AfD’s historic vote share, alongside the CDU’s conservative victory, adds to the growing list of successes for conservative parties across Europe. Although the AfD secured the second-largest portion of the popular vote, mainstream parties have ruled out forming a coalition with it due to the “Brandmauer” or “firewall against the right,” a policy designed to prevent collaboration with far-right parties holding extremist views. However, the CDU appeared to breach this firewall in January 2025, when it passed a non-binding resolution—supported by the AfD—to block undocumented foreigners at the border. Now, as the largest opposition party in the Bundestag, the AfD will have greater influence over policies shaped by the ruling coalition.

While the AfD still faces significant hurdles to forming a government or joining a coalition, the possibility cannot be dismissed entirely. With conservative and hard-right ideologies gaining traction in the West, as evidenced by recent elections, the party’s prospects may strengthen in the future.

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