“Pakistan has already accepted a tender of 105,000 tonnes and floated another for 200,000 tonnes, while Bangladesh has opened for 500,000 tonnes of imports,” Covrig said. He added that Azerbaijan has also committed about 85,000 tonnes, tightening supplies in the London white sugar market.
For India, exports remain critical, but high freight costs and ethanol diversion policies will determine the supply outlook. “If more than 4–5 million tonnes are diverted to ethanol, domestic pressure will ease. But if not, then sugar will flow to exports at cheaper levels,” Covrig warned.He cautioned that global markets could face a significant deficit in Q1 and Q2 of 2026 if India does not step in. “Indian sugar is needed in Q1. If it does not come, the white sugar market will go through the roof by the end of Q1,” he said.
Covrig expects Indian policymakers to balance domestic ethanol programmes with export needs, highlighting that around 1.8 million tonnes of Indian white sugar exports are factored into global trade flows for 2026.
Watch accompanying video for entire conversation.
