Labour data resets expectations
The Labor Department reported 119,000 new jobs in September, more than double the forecast. The surprise was enough to temper December rate-cut expectations, which now sit near 30–40%.With the Fed still signalling discomfort about easing too soon, markets are recalibrating their timelines.
Dollar strength adds pressure
The dollar index is on track for its strongest week in more than a month, making gold costlier for non-US buyers. Traders also anticipate more position-squaring as the year winds down, adding to the metal’s subdued tone.
Brian Lan of GoldSilver Central noted that the market is “in a consolidation phase,” with profit-taking visible across recent sessions.
Policy signals turn mixed
Minutes from the Fed’s October meeting revealed that policymakers cut rates while warning against moving too quickly amid uneven progress on inflation. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee reiterated that early, aggressive cuts could be risky—messaging that keeps traders on edge.The government shutdown has added another layer of uncertainty by merging the October and November jobs reports and delaying key economic releases.
Domestic gold prices remain firm
Indian retail rates stayed elevated:
- ₹12,448 per gram (24K)
- ₹11,410 per gram (22K)
- ₹9,336 per gram (18K)
Analysts flag heightened volatility
Rahul Kalantri of Mehta Equities said bullion is experiencing sharp swings as rate expectations shift and the dollar strengthens. Gold is seeing support around $4,032–4,000 and resistance near $4,110–4,140.
Manav Modi of Motilal Oswal said the strong labour print and firm dollar have cooled rate-cut hopes, while geopolitical developments are influencing overall sentiment.
Outlook: Awaiting clearer signals
Gold is expected to stay range-bound until the Fed’s December meeting, with traders looking for clarity on jobs, inflation and the trajectory of the dollar. The next clean set of data will determine whether the metal stabilises—or finds fresh momentum.
–With Reuters inputs
