Gunwani attributed the ongoing strength in global risk assets to what he called the “debasement trade,” where developed economies with high government debt are maintaining negative real interest rates. “Most developed countries have debt-to-GDP ratios of more than 100%,” he noted, adding that persistent fiscal deficits and loose monetary policies are driving investors toward assets such as gold, silver, and Bitcoin.
Also Read | CLSA sees Nifty at 26,300 by year-end; gold may hit $4,100, silver $50 before pauseOn the equity outlook, Gunwani said the current phase is one of consolidation after strong returns in 2023 and 2024. “We can’t be that greedy to expect every year those kinds of returns,” he said. He expects large-cap stocks to deliver returns close to nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth over the next three to five years, while good stock-picking funds could perform better.
Gunwani remains positive on the metals sector, particularly non-ferrous metals such as aluminium. “If the dollar weakens, it typically helps all commodities,” he said, noting that rising electricity costs and global capacity constraints could support prices despite slower global growth.
He also advised investors to maintain a diversified portfolio across asset classes. “You should have some proportion of gold, silver, Bitcoin, and equities,” he said, explaining that high global debt levels make it “risky not to be risky” when it comes to asset allocation.Gunwani said that Bandhan AMC evaluates each issue independently when making initial public offerings (IPOs). “We don’t have black or white views saying IPOs are bad or good,” he said. “If we like it fundamentally, we see it as another stock to consider.”
Also Read | AI impact on IT sector still unfolding, says DSP Mutual Fund’s Vinit Sambre
Discussing artificial intelligence (AI) and data sovereignty, Gunwani said India needs to build domestic capability in data storage and technology. “If we aspire to go from $4 trillion to $10 trillion, we need to own some tech ourselves,” he said. He pointed out potential risks when relying on global hyperscalers such as AWS and Google Cloud, emphasising the need for local champions in this space.
Gunwani also expressed interest in innovation-focused funds, describing them as India’s equivalent of the NASDAQ. “Innovation is a good theme to look at,” he said, noting that knowledge-based sectors are becoming an increasingly important part of developed economies.
For the full interview, watch the accompanying video
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