Explained | India has a trillion dollar exports target this year. How far is it?

India’s target for exports in the current financial year is $1 trillion, compared to $863.1 billion, which itself was a record. To reach $1 trillion this year, India needs a growth rate of 15.8%.While the official data for the month of July is due to be released, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal revealed today that Indian exports grew 15% year-on-year in the first four months, nearly at par with the government’s annual target rate.That would mean a faster growth in exports in the month of July, considering that the growth between April and June 2026 was 11.37%. India had a total export of $129.3 billion at the end of the first quarter of the financial year ending March 2027.The estimates for the rest of the year continue to be encouraging:CategoryJuly-Sep estimateImplied growth (YoY)Total merchandise exports$131.2 billion17.6%Non-oil exports$113.8 billion20.3%Others (excl gems & jewellery)$105.8 billion20.5%Source: India EXIM Bank data released on Aug 12India’s trade minister Goyal attributed the growth to a series of free trade agreements that India has signed in recent months. The cumulative size of the economies that India has an FTA with has gone up to $60 trillion now, compared to $10 trillion before 2014, Goyal added.Here’s a list of trade agreements that India has signed in the last five yearsCountryNature of the pactYearMauritiusComprehensive Economic Cooperation and Partnership AgreementApril 2021UAEComprehensive Economic Partnership May 2022AustraliaEconomic Cooperation and Trade Agreement Dec 2022EuropeTrade and Economic Partnership AgreementOct 2025OmanComprehensive Economic Partnership AgreementJune 2026UKComprehensive Economic and Trade AgreementJuly 2026India now has preferential access to global trade worth $25 trillion due to these trade pacts, as per the minister. Data at the end of June 2026It’s also important to note that Indian exporters benefitted from a weaker rupee, which makes exports competitive. The Indian currency is weaker by over 9% at the of July 2026 compared to a year earlier.A strong growth in exports is good is likely to lead to fresh investments and job creation. “India’s positive export outlook is expected to be driven by sustained expansion in domestic manufacturing and exchange rate movements. However, there are downside risks emanating from geopolitical conflicts, and volatility in international commodity markets,” the India EXIM Bank report added.Read more: Why the financial health of Indian states should worry us all(Edited by : Sriram Iyer)

Source link