India’s July retail inflation likely steady at 4.4%; food inflation seen easing: CNBC-TV18 poll

India’s retail inflation is likely to stay unchanged in July, with a CNBC-TV18 poll pegging headline consumer price index (CPI) inflation at 4.4%, compared with 4.38% in June, ahead of official data due to be released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) on Wednesday at 4 pm.The stable reading is expected despite some underlying shifts across major components of the inflation basket. Economists surveyed by CNBC-TV18 expect food inflation to ease further, while core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, is seen inching higher.Food CPI inflation is projected at 5.02% in July, down from 5.32% in June, reflecting relatively stable food prices between June and July. The moderation in food prices is likely to offset pressure from other categories.At the same time, core CPI inflation is expected to rise to 4.01% from 3.9% in June, suggesting that underlying price pressures outside food and fuel may have strengthened modestly during the month.IndicatorJuly PollJune ActualHeadline CPI4.40%4.38%Core CPI4.01%3.90%Food CPI5.02%5.32%WPI10.10%9.87%The headline inflation print could also benefit from softer gold prices. Economists noted that a decline in gold prices during July may have helped contain the overall inflation index.In June, headline CPI rose 1.03% month-on-month, largely driven by higher fuel prices. However, no comparable month-on-month trigger is seen in July, contributing to expectations of a largely unchanged annual inflation reading.Meanwhile, wholesale price inflation is expected to edge higher. The CNBC-TV18 poll sees Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation at 10.1% in July, compared with 9.87% in June, indicating continued cost pressures at the producer level.

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