The brokerage believes that the company’s narrative of higher volumes and stronger e-auction prices may not play out as expected. This is primarily due to excess domestic supply, rising competition & relatively subdued demand.
E-Auction Volumes
E-auction realizations are likely to stay range-bound. Nuvama estimates the March 2026 e-auction premium at around to be between 35% and 40%, broadly in line with the average of 37% for the first nine months of financial year 2026. This is despite Nuvama expecting volumes to see some uptick.Subdued volumes so far this financial year have meant no growth so far, and that has put the projection of a 4% Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over financial year 2026-2028 at risk, especially with increasing output from captive miners.
Wage Hike Pressures
Additionally, cost pressures loom. Wage revision for non-executives is due from July 2026, and the company may not be able to fully pass on the impact, Nuvama wrote in its note.
Muted Earnings Growth
As a result, Coal India’s earnings growth is likely to remain muted and Nuvama expects the company’s Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortisation (EBITDA) projected to grow only at a 4% CAGR over financial year 2026-2028.Out of the 26 analysts who cover Coal India, 13 have a “buy” rating on the stock, eight say “hold”, while five of them have a “sell” rating.
Shares of Coal India are trading 3.2% lower on Tuesday at ₹441, and are the worst performers on the Nifty 50 index. The stock has gained 10% so far in 2026.
