Geoffrey Dennis says tariff deal within sight, wrong time to be too negative on India

Geoffrey Dennis, Independent Emerging Markets Commentator, said he “wouldn’t be surprised if the deal goes through in the next 1-2 months,” as India and the US continue discussions on lowering the 50% tariff.“India does not want to open up fully to US exports,” he said, adding that agriculture and tariffs on certain sectors remain hurdles.

Market participants are watching the expected effective tariff rate closely. Anything between 16-18% is seen as workable, while levels above 20% may disadvantage Indian exporters, he added.

Also Read | Fed likely to move just once more, dollar seen gaining ground: Standard CharteredOn US markets and the recent decline in the NASDAQ, Dennis said the move looks more like a short-term adjustment. He noted that AI-linked companies are still supported by earnings growth, stable bond yields, and steady dollar trends. He said he does not expect a major pullback and sees markets stabilising soon. “We’re probably short-term, somewhere near the bottom,” he added.

He added that India continues to show macro resilience, helped by better inflation trends and potential room for rate cuts. “This would be the wrong time to get too negative about India,” he said, adding that he would “much prefer to be in India now than in China” over the next three to six months.

For the full interview, watch the accompanying video

Catch all the latest updates from the stock market here