HPCL shares have room for further upside despite 21% surge in three months, Citi says

Shares of Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd. (HPCL) are in focus on Wednesday, July 9, after brokerage firm Citi opened a new 90-day positive catalyst watch coverage on the stock.Citi has a “buy” recommendation on HPCL with a price target of ₹510, which implies a potential upside of 12.5% from Tuesday’s closing levels.
HPCL’s shares have risen 21% in the last three months, but Citi said that despite this, there is still more room for further upside in the near-term.
The brokerage said the company reported robust first quarter earnings before interest taxes depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA), translating into earnings per share (EPS) of ₹22. This is approximately 40% of the full year estimate in the first quarter itself.Citi expects more upside for HPCL on the back of marketing margin assumptions, given the low crude prices and stable fuel prices. It also reduced the likelihood of an imminent fuel price cut, which could benefit HPCL the most.

The brokerage added that there is a possibility of some sort of mechanism to compensate the oil marketing companies (OMCs) for LPG losses. HPCL also offers a 5% dividend yield.HPCL’s net profit in the fourth quarter of the financial year 2025 increased 11% to ₹3,355 crore from ₹3,023 crore in the previous quarter.

The company reported an EBITDA of ₹5,803 crore in the March quarter, which was 2.8% lower than the ₹5,970 crore it reported in the previous quarter.

Of the 35 analysts that have coverage on the stock, 25 have a “buy” rating, three have a “hold” rating and seven have a “sell” rating.

HPCL shares ended the previous session 1.18% up. The stock has gained nearly 11% in the past month.

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