Sunday, July 26, 2026

Nifty F&O Setup: FII net longs increase marginally for the first time in three months

Date:

The Nifty begins the February F&O series with multiple major events on the anvil. The series also begins after a forgettable series in January, during which the index fell over 700 points.

F&O Series Returns (Points)
January 2026 -763
December 2025 54
November 2025 -51
October 2025 1,325
September 2025 110

Historically, the February series has been one with big price moves on either side for the Nifty. The last five years have seen three February series’ being won by the bears, and two others by the bulls.

February Series Year Returns (Points) Returns (%)
2021 1,280 9
2022 -862 -5
2023 -381 -2
2024 630 3
2025 -705 -3

At the start of the February series, rollovers currently stand at 70.7%, lower than the three-month average of 72.3%.

Series Rollovers
February 70.7%
January 72.3%
December 68.8%
November 76%
October 83%

After two months of decline, net long positions of Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have seen a marginal increase at the start of the February series, returning back to double digits.

Month FII Longs In Futures
February 12%
January 9%
December 15%
November 20%
October 6%

Despite the marginal increase, the net short contracts for the FIIs stood at 1.75 lakh at the start of the series, while Client long exposure of 72.5% comprised of 1.26 lakh net contracts.The biggest trigger of the February series comes this Sunday when Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will table the Union Budget on the floor of the Parliament. In a few days from the Budget presentation, the Reserve Bank of India will come out with its policy decision. The remainder of the earnings season for the third quarter and any potential progress on the India-US trade deal will be important to monitor during the series as well.

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