The revised target implies an upside of 57% from the stock’s last closing price on Monday.
The brokerage said ONGC has been the worst-performing exploration and production (E&P) stock globally since the onset of the ongoing war, as investors remain concerned about the possibility of a fresh windfall tax.ALSO READ | CMPDI IPO Day 3: GMP at ₹1 as Coal India arm sees weak demand
These concerns stem from historical precedents. However, CLSA said that a new law passed last year limits the government’s ability to impose such taxes, as indicated by the oil minister.
The brokerage added that the stock is currently pricing in Brent crude oil at $63 per barrel, and could see up to 65% upside in a scenario where Brent rises to $90 per barrel. It has therefore reiterated its ‘High Conviction Outperform’ rating.
CLSA expects key triggers in the near term, including a likely 15% increase in gas production as new fields commence operations over the next three to four months, along with more than a 50% rise in gas prices from newly drilled wells.The brokerage has also raised its Brent crude oil assumptions for financial years 2027 and 2028 to $89 and $82 per barrel, respectively, which is expected to boost ONGC’s earnings per share (EPS) estimates by 34% and 14%.
Earlier, brokerage Macquarie had also assigned an ‘Outperform’ rating to ONGC, with a price target of ₹300 per share.
While near-term price volatility has been supportive, Macquarie believes sustained production growth will be key to a re-rating of the stock.
According to the brokerage, calendar year 2025 marked a phase of stability for ONGC, with the earlier decline in production largely arrested, although a mild contraction persisted.
Macquarie expects a significant ramp-up in production in 2026.
Out of 31 analysts tracking ONGC, 19 have a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock, while six each have a ‘Hold’ and ‘Sell’ recommendation.
Shares of ONGC ended Monday’s session 0.04% lower at ₹265.25. The stock has gained 4% over the past one month.
