Silver rally: Vallum Capital research shows retail investors missed the peak

A recent Vallum Capital Research report shows Indian retail investors poured $4.6 billion into silver at its peak in late 2025, only to sell when prices fell sharply, highlighting a costly lesson in timing and market psychology.Between January 2022 and February 2026, silver surged from $24 to $120 per ounce, a 400% rise that grabbed global attention. But ETF flow data reveals a stark contrast between Indian retail investors and global institutional funds.

Phase 1: Early entry
From January 2022 to February 2025, global institutions exited silver ETFs, selling $4.05 billion. Indian retail investors, in contrast, invested $1.57 billion steadily over three years.Phase 2: Brief alignment

Between March and August 2025, silver rose from $33 to $39. Both global and Indian investors bought aggressively — global funds added $4.85 billion, while Indian inflows hit $207 million per month.Phase 3: Peak FOMO

From September 2025 to January 2026, silver climbed 182% to $120. Institutional funds sold $3.55 billion methodically, while Indian investors poured in $4.6 billion — buying at the market’s top.

Phase 4: The correction

In February 2026, silver corrected to $81.58. Indian investors panicked, selling $100.6 million at a loss, while institutions calmly bought $1.79 billion.

The report stresses a key lesson: informed, disciplined capital consistently outperforms reactive retail investing. The $4.6 billion invested at the peak wasn’t a failure of intent but of timing, driven by the human instinct of fear of missing out.