Trade Setup for March 18: Nifty rebounds for second day running but oil poses a challenge

The Nifty 50 index extended its pullback rally for a second consecutive session amid heightened volatility, closing above the 23,500 mark.After opening on a strong note, the index gained momentum through most of the session, filling Monday’s upside gap around the 23,550 level before ending near that mark. The Nifty rose 172 points on weekly expiry to close at 23,581.

Eternal, Tata Steel and M&M led the gains, while Wipro, Cipla and Tata Consumer Products were among the top laggards.
Barring IT and FMCG, all sectoral indices ended in the green, led by metals, auto and realty stocks.Broader markets mirrored the benchmark’s strength, with the Nifty Midcap 100 rising 1% and the Nifty Smallcap 100 gaining 0.65%.

Going ahead, markets will track developments in West Asia and crude oil price movements.

Siddhartha Khemka of Motilal Oswal said the near-term recovery could sustain, but further upside will hinge on easing geopolitical risks.Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities said the short-term trend remains positive, but the index needs to decisively close above the 23,600-23,700 zone to signal strength.

Failure to hold gains could result in a lower top formation, with immediate support at 23,350.

Nilesh Jain of Centrum Finverse said the broader trend remains weak as long as the Nifty stays below 24,250. On the downside, support is seen at 23,250, followed by 23,000.

Nandish Shah of HDFC Securities said the index closed near the day’s high, with immediate resistance at 23,700.

A breakout above this level could push the Nifty towards 23,835, while a break below 23,300 may resume the downtrend.

Rupak De of LKP Securities said sentiment remains mildly positive, with potential upside towards 23,800-24,000. However, a drop below 23,400 could trigger fresh weakness, dragging the index towards 22,950.