Trigunayat said Iran is dealing with a deep economic and political crisis, which has been worsened by Trump’s rhetoric in favour of the protesters. “When protesters are supported by an outside power, and that too the major power in the world, the situation becomes much more complicated,” he said, adding that such statements reduce the chances of calming the situation or addressing grievances in a holistic manner.
He cautioned that while Trump has spoken of attacking Iran or imposing a blockade, the US would have to factor in the concerns of its Gulf partners, who would be directly exposed in the event of a conflict. Any escalation involving Iran, the US or Israel would “destabilise the entire region”, he said.Trigunayat also pointed to reports that US personnel have been asked to vacate major air bases in the Gulf amid Iranian threats of pre-emptive strikes, underlining how quickly tensions could spiral.
At the same time, he noted that the Iranian regime has limited room to manoeuvre, given decades of sanctions and worsening economic conditions. Even if corrective steps are taken, their impact would not be immediate. According to him, regime change would only be possible if Iran’s security institutions, including the Revolutionary Guards and the army, were to withdraw support from the current leadership.Strategic affairs expert Anju Gupta said developments on the ground suggest the protests may have lost momentum in recent days, rather than pointing to an imminent collapse of the regime. She highlighted large pro-government rallies held recently and said there appears to be a sizeable section of the population seeking reforms, not regime change. “That is a simplistic but reasonable conclusion one can draw,” she said.
Gupta also drew attention to diplomatic messaging from Iranian embassies, which has blamed foreign interference while stressing that the Iranian people are capable of addressing their issues through national institutions and legal mechanisms. She described this as significant political signalling, noting the emphasis on the people rather than the government alone.
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For India, the stakes are high. Trigunayat said New Delhi has consistently opposed military or external intervention and is deeply concerned about the fallout of any escalation. With around 9.5 million Indians living in the region, missile exchanges or attacks on American assets could put civilians at risk across several countries. Energy security, trade, maritime navigation and economic engagement would also be severely affected.
He added that Trump’s warning of a possible additional 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran, including India, could have a direct impact despite limited bilateral trade. India, he said, is likely conveying its concerns to both Tehran and Washington, while hoping the crisis can be resolved peacefully.
Watch accompanying video for entire conversation.
