“When uncertainty is this high, there are simply too many scenarios to plan for,” Kumra said. “What leaders need instead are no-regrets, bold moves and real options. You cannot map out every possible outcome anymore.”
From scenario planning to bold actionKumra cautioned that companies responding to uncertainty by freezing investments and going purely defensive risk missing the next wave of growth. At the same time, aggressive expansion without safeguards can be equally dangerous.
“History shows that if you only defend in a crisis, you fail to emerge stronger. But if you are only on the offense, you can blow yourself up,” he said. “The right approach is to strengthen your core business while selectively going on the offensive where you can create extraordinary value.”
That balance, McKinsey leaders say, is becoming harder as the sources of uncertainty multiply.
Geopolitics enters a new phase
According to Kumra, the nature of global risk itself has fundamentally changed. While tariff disputes dominated conversations in Davos just a year ago, today’s discussions span far more complex and disruptive issues.
“The language of geopolitics has changed,” he said. “It’s no longer just about tariffs. We are talking about export sanctions, investment controls, investment screening and a whole new repertoire of tools.”
McKinsey estimates that governments worldwide have spent close to $2 trillion over the past five years on subsidies, incentives and export controls. For corporates, this means geopolitics is now a core business variable rather than a peripheral policy concern.
A $14 trillion trade rewiring opportunity
Despite the turbulence, Kumra struck an optimistic note on global trade—and particularly on India’s position in the reshaping of supply chains.
“Let’s not lose sight of the fact that global trade is still expected to grow by about a trillion dollars a year,” he said. “Over the next decade, somewhere between $12 trillion and $14 trillion of trade is going to get rewired.”
McKinsey’s research identifies around 50 major trade corridors that define global commerce. Several of the most resilient and fastest-growing corridors, Kumra noted, are centred on India and Asia, including India–Middle East, India–Europe and India–Japan routes.
“These are among the safest corridors—safe meaning they are going to grow no matter what,” he said. “This is a massive opportunity for India to reconnect with the world and rethink how it does business globally.”
India Inc’s global moment
For Indian companies, the rewiring of global trade and capital flows presents both an opportunity and a challenge. While interest from foreign investors into India continues to rise, Kumra believes Indian corporates must overcome a tendency to remain overly domestic-focused.
“The domestic market in India is so large that companies can get too comfortable,” he said. “In countries like Korea, every company—big or small—is born global. Indian companies need to develop that same mindset.”
As foreign direct investment rises and competition intensifies at home, Indian firms will increasingly be forced to raise their game. According to Kumra, those that succeed domestically are well placed to compete internationally.“Frankly, if you can win in India, you can win in many other places,” he said.
Opportunity amid uncertainty
Echoing this optimism, Alex Panas, Global Leader for Industry Sectors at McKinsey & Co, said CEOs at Davos are not paralysed by uncertainty. Instead, many are focused on fundamental growth levers—new products, new markets and sharper execution.
“In a world of radical uncertainty, what matters is radical planning and radical dialogue,” Panas said, pointing to a renewed emphasis on growth, disciplined investment and long-term positioning.
For India Inc, the message from Davos is clear: while global volatility is unlikely to fade anytime soon, the current reset in trade, geopolitics and supply chains could mark a defining moment. Companies willing to act boldly—without recklessness—and look beyond domestic comfort zones may find that radical uncertainty is also a once-in-a-generation opportunity.
Also Read | India Inc expects 7-8% GDP growth riding on jobs, exports and capex: FICCI
Below is the excerpt of the discussion.
Q: The one buzzword that I’ve heard in practically every conversation is that we need to do scenario planning. Who better than consultants to talk about scenario planning? So, Gautam, what do you walk away with? What scenarios are you painting?
Kumra: Well, scenario planning, I think, unfortunately, is not as helpful anymore because there are too many scenarios to paint when uncertainty is this high. I think everybody should think about what I call no-regrets, bold moves and options, because you can’t plan every scenario out there.
Having said that, I think it is important to confront this reality, but also to be optimistic. One thing we’ve learned is that anytime we’ve gone through a period of crisis like this, if you freeze and only defend, you fail to emerge stronger. But if you are only on the offense, you can blow yourself up. So what is needed is, frankly, to think about how to manage this uncertainty by both defending and strengthening your business, while also looking at opportunities. And there are many where you can be on the offensive and create extraordinary value.
Q: What’s the difference between radical uncertainty and regular uncertainty?
Kumra: The reality is that the number of dimensions that CEOs and management teams now have to deal with keeps growing. Look at Davos last year—we were talking about tariff uncertainty. Now, look at this year; we’re talking about military and security uncertainty. Even the language of geopolitics has changed. It’s not just tariffs—you’re talking about export sanctions, investment controls, investment screening—a whole new repertoire of tools that countries and companies are using. By the way, the world has spent about $2 trillion in the last five years on all kinds of subsidies, incentives, and export controls. So geopolitics is not just about tariffs. That’s what people are realizing now, and there’s so much uncertainty.
Q: But Alex, in this world of radical uncertainty, how do you find opportunities and silver linings? What are you hearing from the people you speak to, and what are you advising your clients to do?
Panas: Well, Davos is all about dialogue, and it’s clear that people want to have dialogue. What’s really interesting to me is that many CEOs are very focused on traditional, fundamental things: one, how to drive growth in their business—exciting new products, services, markets, geographies. Second is obviously AI, but now the focus is on getting a return on investment from AI, rewiring people and processes, and fundamentally changing business structures. And third is M&A. M&A has come back in a big way, and people are always exploring it. So yes, there will always be degrees of uncertainty, but more important, to Gautam’s point about radical uncertainty, is radical planning and radical dialogue.
Q: But to Gautam’s point that you shouldn’t freeze and must be strategic about when to play offense and defense, what’s driving the kind of M&A wave we are seeing? We’re seeing a series of bolt-on acquisitions, largely driven by tech, but also outside of that. What do you believe is driving it?
Panas: Yes, we’re seeing a lot of acquisitions across other areas too—consumer, industrial, oil and gas, mining, telco, and more. Part of it is that there has been a backlog—there hasn’t been a lot of M&A for several years, and now it’s coming to bear. Two, stock prices are higher, so there’s more currency in the market. Three, people are seeing technology as a moment to reshape companies and industries, and the opportunities that creates.
Q: Gautam, what is that going to mean for India and Asia? I’ll put this in the context of a conversation I had with Sunil Mittal. He said he’s ready to make bigger global bets than before and has the appetite to do more. Are Indian companies, Indian promoters, looking outside more?
Kumra: I think the short answer is yes, and there is a need to do more. Let me make two or three points. First, how this impacts Asia and India: there is massive rewiring of trade happening. Amidst all this madness and radical uncertainty, let’s not lose sight of the fact that global trade is expected to continue growing about a trillion dollars a year. Over the next 10 years, our expectation is that somewhere between $12 to $14 trillion of trade is going to get rewired. We’ve studied this, and there are about 50 corridors that define trade globally. The good news is that Asia and India are at the heart of some of the safest corridors—safe meaning they are going to grow no matter what: India–Middle East, India–Japan, India–Europe, and so on. This is an opportunity for us as a country to reconnect with the world and formulate new ways to do business globally. Indian companies can do more to be global. Look at Korea: every company, big or small, is born global. The challenge in India is that the domestic market is so large that companies can be too comfortable being domestic. My view is that as we attract more FDI and increase competition, Indian companies must become a lot more global. And frankly, if you can win in India, you can win in many other places.
Watch accompanying video for entire discussion.
