Ian Bremmer, president and founder of the Eurasia Group, has warned that a prolonged standoff over Greenland under US President Donald Trump could fundamentally weaken NATO and reshape global power equations, with China emerging as a key beneficiary.
Speaking to CNBC-TV18 on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, Bremmer said, “The US is demanding territorial control of Greenland, which means that the Russians don’t want to sit and talk.” He added that if President Donald Trump does not back down on Greenland, it could mark the effective “end of NATO” as it currently exists.
China stands to gain if transatlantic ties weaken
Bremmer argued that an escalation of the Greenland crisis would fracture trust among Western allies, creating strategic openings for China. “If this crisis explodes and undermines transatlantic relationships, China will clearly be a beneficiary,” he noted.
On global leadership dynamics, Bremmer described the US as the world’s most powerful country but said Trump is not the most powerful leader. “Xi Jinping is the most powerful leader in the world today,” he said, pointing to Beijing’s centralized decision-making and long-term strategic clarity.
Bremmer also touched on shifting geopolitical alignments, saying Canada and India’s relationships have, in part, stabilised through their respective dealings with China, shaped by evolving US policies. He added that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy now appears more willing to compromise on issues he had previously resisted, reflecting changing realities on the ground.
From FAFO to TACO: Bremmer on Trump’s two policy modes
Bremmer said President Trump has two distinct modes of foreign policy. In what he called “FAFO” — fool around and find out — Trump takes a tough stance that tests other countries, as seen with Venezuela and Ukraine. In “TACO” — Trump always chickens out — he retreats, as with Russia and China. Bremmer noted that Trump currently views many European allies as FAFO, and Europeans will need to demonstrate they are TACO — showing unified, credible military and economic responses — to shift his approach. He added that this dynamic could shape how issues like retaliatory tariffs play out this week.
Bremmer’s remarks in Davos build on his earlier comments to CNBC-TV18 in interviews aired on January 8. In one interview, he said US control over Venezuelan oil reserves is unlikely to trigger near-term conflict or materially disrupt global oil supplies, noting that markets remain well supplied. He contrasted Washington’s continued investment in oil and gas with China’s focus on batteries, nuclear power, renewables and critical minerals, calling oil, gas and coal “20th-century energies”. China, he said, is positioning itself as an “electro state” rather than a petrostate.
In another January 8 interview, Bremmer warned that Trump’s ongoing “political revolution” is injecting deep uncertainty into global markets, alliances and trade. At the same time, the US is sharpening its use of tariffs and sanctions as tools of economic coercion. For countries like India, he said, the consequences are no longer theoretical but immediate, measurable and potentially costly.
