As tensions escalate in West Asia and fears grow over disruptions to global oil supplies, India is navigating a delicate balance between securing energy imports and managing geopolitical pressures, experts said in an interview with CNBC-TV18.
Speaking to the channel, Prateek Pandey, APAC Head of Oil & Gas Research at Rystad Energy, and former diplomat K C Singh outlined the strategic and market implications of the conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel, as well as the risks posed to global oil flows.
Singh said the recent US waiver allowing India to continue importing Russian crude on a temporary basis highlights Washington’s approach of pushing partners to align with its strategic interests.
According to him, India has little choice but to safeguard its own energy security while managing relations with the United States.
He noted that India cannot afford to abandon Russian oil, especially at a time when supplies from the Gulf region face the risk of disruption due to rising tensions with Iran.
Maintaining Russian imports, he argued, provides India with a crucial hedge against supply shocks from West Asia.
Singh also suggested that the US and Israel have not achieved the swift regime change in Iran that some policymakers may have expected, which could prolong the conflict and complicate Washington’s position.
Singh said warnings from Gulf countries about potentially shutting down oil exports or withdrawing investments from the United States are a way to pressure Washington to de-escalate the conflict.
According to him, these countries fear that their oil and gas infrastructure could become targets if hostilities intensify.
He added that Iran appears confident in its ability to sustain the confrontation, relying on asymmetric tactics such as deploying low-cost drones against expensive missile defence systems.
For Tehran, Singh said, simply surviving the conflict would amount to a strategic victory.
Pandey highlighted the scale of the potential disruption to global oil markets.
He said nearly 20% of global oil supply is currently at risk due to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and the broader regional conflict.
While oil prices above $100 per barrel are not yet the base case for most analysts, Pandey said such levels are increasingly possible if the conflict or disruptions in the Strait continue for more than a few weeks.
First Published: Mar 6, 2026 6:04 PM IS
